Bayes theorem

Nov. 12, 2015



Dear Hildie:


It’s turned cool. Quite pleasant, really. I’m trying to flesh out this new novel. It’s always hard and once I start I always deviate from what I’d sketched out at first, but I suppose that’s normal.


I was reading parts of Canterbury Tales recently and that reminded me of old Dr. Kirby. When I think of the English Department I’ll always think of him as being the chair. And, of course, that reminds me of all the dealings you had with him when you were getting your M.A. and struggling with Charles Brockton Brown. I suppose by now somebody’s written a thesis about the old fellow.


I’ve also been reading a book about superforecasting. Doesn’t tell me much I didn’t already know but gives a more sensible explanation of Bayes’ theorem than some I’ve read. Some guy once tried to use it to prove the existence of God. Ridiculous. Even Bayes (a Presbyterian minister) would have been surprised, I’ll bet. But maybe not.


Take care.






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